Brexit: What outcomes should we expect?

In exactly 12 weeks the UK is scheduled to leave the European Union. After a brief hiatus, Brexit looks set to dominate the news agenda again from next week.

Faced with a hostile parliament, we believe that Theresa May will seek to use the limited leverage she has – through control of the timetable – to draw proceedings out.

May’s hope will be that, faced with the prospect of no-deal by default, moderates will eventually vote for her version of Brexit. If this does not work, she may turn to plan-b options.

Considering recent events, our assessment of the probabilities of three broad outcomes is as follows:

• No Brexit / Second referendum – 30%

• Orderly Brexit following eventual parliamentary approval of an exit agreement – 55%

• No-deal Brexit – 15%

Broken down into their component parts, we assess that the probabilities of more specific outcomes are as follows:

• Unilateral Brexit revocation – 10%

• Second referendum – 20%

• Approval of Theresa May’s unchanged deal – 10%

• Plan B Brexit (i.e Customs Union Membership/Article 50 extension followed by EEA) – 45%

• Deliberate no deal – 0%

• Accidental no deal – 15%