Week Ahead (10 February)

Week Ahead

W/C Monday, 10 February – AI Action Summit kicks off in Paris

The French-hosted AI Action opens today in Paris bringing together key global leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, US Vice President JD Vance, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alongside top executives from Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Mistral AI. The event follows similar AI leadership summits in the UK and South Korea and serves as a platform for France to position itself as a global AI powerhouse. On Sunday, Macron announced a €109 billion AI investment, but questions remain over its funding. Meanwhile, the European Commission is preparing an AI-related announcement, potentially unveiling repackaged initiatives and funding, as it faces increasing competition from Washington’s $500 billion AI strategy.

However, transatlantic tensions are set to dominate discussions. JD Vance is expected to strongly criticise the EU’s digital regulations, including the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the AI Act, which the US sees as discriminating against American tech firms. He will also meet von der Leyen and top EU officials, where discussions will likely include looming US tariffs on European goods, a growing point of contention between the two economic blocs.

Monday, 10 February – CJEU to hear Meta's appeal against the Italian Communications Regulatory Authority

In the afternoon, the European Court of Justice (CJEU), the EU’s highest court, is set to hear Meta’s legal challenge against Italy’s Communications Regulatory Authority (AGCOM). The case, ‘’Meta Platforms Ireland Limited v. Autorità per le Garanzie nelle Comunicazioni’’ (Case C-797/23), revolves around a dispute concerning the compatibility of Italian legislation with EU law, specifically in relation to copyright and compensation for the online use of press publications.

The dispute arose after AGCOM issued a resolution which established criteria for determining "fair compensation" for the online use of press publications by digital platforms like Meta. This resolution was based on Article 43-bis of the Italian Law on Copyright, which implements Article 15 of the EU Copyright Directive (790/2019). Article 15, often referred to as the "press publishers' right," grants publishers the right to seek compensation from digital platforms for the use of their content.

In December 2023, Meta decided to challenge the resolution, arguing that the Italian legislation and AGCOM’s criteria for compensation are inconsistent with EU law. The company contends that the measures imposed by Italy are disproportionate and infringe on its fundamental rights, including the freedom to conduct business under Article 16 of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU. In March 2024, Lazio’s Regional Administrative Court referred the case to the CJEU for a preliminary ruling. This means the CJEU will interpret the relevant EU laws, and the Italian court will then apply that interpretation to the case.

The central question is whether Italian legislation and the resolution align with the EU's framework for compensating press publishers for the online use of their content. In addition, the CJEU will rule on the criteria for determining "fair compensation" under Italian law consistent with EU law, particularly in terms of proportionality and the protection of fundamental rights.

This case is part of a broader trend of European regulators seeking to hold big tech firms accountable for their use of copyrighted content. It follows similar disputes in other EU countries, including Poland, where Meta has also been under investigation since October 2024 for restricting the visibility of media links on Facebook. This means that the outcome of this case could set a precedent for future legal battles between digital platforms and content creators across the EU. It will also take place only a few days after Meta’s new head of global public policy, Joel Kaplan, warned that the bloc is heading in the wrong direction with its tech regulation and joined his boss Mark Zuckerberg and President Trump in likening EU tech fines to a ‘’tariff’’.

Thursday, 13 February – Court of Justice to rule on state aid cases involving Carpatair, Wizz Air and Timisoara International Airport

On Thursday, the CJEU will deliver its judgment in three joined state aid cases (C-244/23 P, C-245/23 P, C-246/23 P) involving Carpatair, Wizz Air Hungary, the European Commission, and Romania’s Timisoara International Airport (AITTV).

The cases stem from appeals against a February 2023 ruling by the General Court (T-522/20), which examined Romanian state aid measures linked to Timisoara International Airport and their impact on airline competition. The European Commission, Wizz Air Hungary, and AITTV have challenged that ruling, seeking its annulment.

At the core of the dispute are Romanian state aid measures granted to Timisoara International Airport and financial arrangements between the airport and Wizz Air. The Commission previously ruled that certain measures did not constitute state aid, prompting legal challenges from competitor Carpatair. Therefore, this week’s ruling will decide:

·       whether the Commission correctly applied the market economy operator principle (MEOP) in assessing the financial relationship between the airport and Wizz Air.

·       whether the Commission was entitled to consider economic analyses conducted after the adoption of the aid measure, as long as they were based on pre-existing evidence.

The ruling follows an Opinion by Advocate General Maciej Szpunar, delivered in October 2024, which suggested that the CJEU should set aside the General Court’s decision and clarify the application of the MEOP, particularly regarding ex post economic assessments in state aid cases. It is worth noting that Advocate General’s ruling is not binding but the Court tends to follow their recommendations.

Friday, 14 February – Munich Security Conference to be held; US likely to pitch President Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine

On Friday, the Munich Security Conference will take place in Germany. It is renowned as one of the most prominent global forums for the discussion of security and defence issues, often attended by senior figure such as head of states and military leaders. What could make this year’s conference particularly interesting is the presence US State Secretary Marco Rubio along with Keith Kellog, the newly appointed by the Trump administration special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, who earlier last week confirmed his intention to speak.

Latest reports suggest that President Trump’s plan to resolve the three-year war in Ukraine could be presented at the conference. Kellogg is expected to outline the administration’s strategy to address Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Even though details of the plan remain undisclosed, it is speculated to include proposals such as freezing the conflict, potentially leaving Russian-occupied territories in limbo while providing Ukraine with security guarantees against future aggression from Moscow.

Trump has reportedly warned Moscow of further sanctions if it refuses to engage in peace talks with Kyiv. Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have signalled a shift in their previously rigid stances, indicating a willingness to negotiate. Last Wednesday, the Kremlin announced increased contact with the US regarding ending the war, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stating that Moscow is ready for discussions. Zelenskyy, from his side, has expressed openness to direct talks with Putin but insists that the US and EU must be involved in the process. Kellogg has also hinted that elections will have to be held in Ukraine once a ceasefire is established. Zelenskyy has acknowledged the possibility of elections but also stressed that they can only occur after the war ends and martial law is lifted.

Friday, 14 February – Eurostat flash GDP and employment estimate for Q4 2024 to be released

On Friday, Eurostat will release its latest flash estimate of GDP and employment statistics for Q4 2024, providing key insights into the eurozone’s economic trajectory as the European Central Bank (ECB) weighs its next policy move.

Q3 2024 data showed GDP growth of 0.4% in the euro area and 0.2% employment growth, marking a modest recovery from the first half of the year. However, economic momentum remains fragile, with full-year 2024 growth expected at just 0.7%, weighed down by geopolitical tensions, concerns over US trade policies, and political uncertainty in key economies such as France and Germany.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures persist, complicating the ECB’s path on monetary policy. After dipping below the ECB’s 2% target in September (1.8%), inflation climbed for three consecutive months, reaching 2.4% in December 2024. According to last week’s flash estimate, inflation rose further to 2.5% in January , suggesting sticky core inflation (2.7% for four consecutive months) and persistent price pressures driven by energy costs and wage growth.

In response to weak economic growth, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% at its January 2025 meeting, its first rate cut of the cycle. President Christine Lagarde hinted that further easing remains on the table but emphasized that rates are still "restrictive" and not yet at a neutral level. She also left the door open for another potential cut in March, depending on new economic data. Later today, she will attend the European Parliament’s plenary session to discuss the state of the EU economy and the central banks’ actions.