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W/C Monday, 2 December – Counting continues to fill remaining 12 seats following general election in Ireland
At the time of writing, 162 out of 174 seats in the 34th Dáil Éireann have been filled with the vote share breaking down as follows:
Fianna Fáil: 43 seats (21.9% of first preference vote)
Fine Gael: 36 seats (20.8% of first preference vote)
Sinn Féin: 36 seats (19% of first preference vote)
Social Democrats: 11 seats (4.8% of first preference vote)
Labour: 9 seats (4.7% of first preference vote)
Independent Ireland: 4 seats (3.6% of first preference vote)
People Before Profit/Solidarity: 3 seats (3.8% of first preference vote)
Aontú: 2 seats (3.9% of first preference vote)
Greens: 1 seat (3% of first preference vote)
Independents and others: 17 seats (15.7% of first preference vote)
As anticipated, despite trailing to Fine Gael in opinion polls in the weeks leading up to the general election, Fianna Fail will win the most seats – they are currently on 43 seats and are set to win 3-5 more. Tied in second place are Fine Gael and Sinn Fein, both on 36 seats. The next best performers are the Social Democrats on 11 seats followed by Labour on 9 seats.
So far, sixty new TDs have been elected. Many of these are coming from Fine Gael which saw 18 of its 35 TDs elected in 2020 choose not to run in 2024. In this context, and considering how unpopular the party was just before Leo Varadkar stood down, Fine Gael had a decent performance. Nevertheless, given that the party had a six point opinion poll lead when the general election campaign got underway, Simon Harris will be disappointed not to have breached the 40 seat mark.
The Dail will meet on 18 December but we should not expect a government to have formed before Christmas. Nor should we expect government formation negotiations to last over 5 months as in 2020. One of the key questions will concern whether Fianna Fail will be willing to share the office of Taoiseach with Fine Gael this time. If Fine Gael trail Fianna Fail by anything more than 8 seats, as looks likely, the rationale for sharing the office of Taoiseach diminishes. Nevertheless, there is a certain advantage for Fianna Fail in going first with Fine Gael then holding the office of Taoiseach going into an election campaign – particularly as the latter has been in power since 2011 and voters seeking change in that context are more likely to punish Fine Gael.
In addition to agreeing a governing arrangement with each other, the other big decision for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael is choosing a coalition partner. Their combined vote share is highly unlikely to meet or exceed the 88 seats required for a majority in the Dail. In the final weeks of the campaign, Micheal Martin singled out the Labour party (9 seats) as a potential coalition partner while the Social Democrats (11 seats) are also an option. This will require considerable concessions and cabinet jobs – for that reason there is a preference among backbenchers within both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail to do a deal involving concessions (but not jobs) to Independent TDs, who won 17 seats, in order to find a stable majority. This will ultimately be a decision for the party leaders.
W/C Monday, 2 December – French Prime Minister Barnier faces crucial vote amid ongoing Budget crisis
This week will be pivotal for Prime Minister Michel Barnier who may see his government thrown out by Parliament. His efforts to push through the 2025 Social Security Bill will likely lead to a censure motion on Wednesday. The bill has become a flashpoint in the broader political and financial crisis gripping the country. The crisis stems from France’s widening budget deficit, which is projected to reach 6.1% of GDP in 2024, far exceeding the 3% limit mandated by the EU. After years of pandemic-related spending, the European Commission placed France under an excessive deficit procedure, demanding urgent corrective measures.
Barnier’s proposed budget for 2025 includes €40 billion in cuts and €20 billion in tax increases to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP. However, the measures are highly unpopular domestically, drawing criticism from all sides of the political spectrum: The Left opposes austerity measures like pension reform and healthcare cuts, while the Le Pen’s RN demands stronger controls on immigration, reductions in state expenditure, and relief for working-class households. With only 211 seats, Barnier’s minority government relies on compromises with opposition groups to pass legislation.
Over the weekend, tensions escalated, with opposition parties reaffirming their intent to block the budget. Le Pen declared on Sunday that the government had “ended discussions” after rejecting additional RN demands, including the revaluation of all pensions in line with inflation and the cancellation of delisting certain medicines. These demands followed earlier concessions pledged by Barnier last week, such as the abandonment of an electricity tax hike and adjustments to State Medical Aid (AME). Le Pen criticised the government for its “extremely closed and sectarian behaviour” and signalled readiness to support a motion of censure if Barnier invokes Article 49.3 of the Constitution to bypass a parliamentary vote. The left-wing coalition, led by the New Popular Front (NFP), has similarly vowed to censure the government, accusing Barnier of dependence on far-right support and denouncing concessions they argue harm social welfare and public health.
Barnier is widely expected to activate Article 49.3 during this afternoon’s session, enabling the government to adopt the Social Security Bill without a parliamentary vote. However, this exposes Barnier’s government to a motion of censure that could be put forward as early as Wednesday. If both the RN and the left unite, they have sufficient votes to bring down the government, a historic event not seen since Georges Pompidou’s fall in 1962. If Barnier’s government falls, President Macron would need to appoint a new Prime Minister, as elections cannot occur before mid-2025. Alternatively, should Barnier decide against invoking Article 49.3, and the Assembly rejects the PLFSS, the government would need to legislate via decree within constitutional deadlines. However, this option would prolong the political stalemate and would be unpopular with the French public.
Political instability has already unnerved markets, with French bond yields surpassing those of Greece, signalling diminished investor confidence. In any case, a government collapse will deepen financial uncertainty and further undermine France’s efforts to restore EU-mandated fiscal discipline.
W/C Monday, 2 December – Pro-EU parties hold their ground in Parliamentary elections as the country braces for Presidential elections runoff
Romania's pro-EU and pro-NATO parties managed to hold off a far-right surge in parliamentary elections on Sunday. The ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) secured about 23% of the vote, maintaining its status as the strongest party. The far-right AUR came in second with 18%, followed by the National Liberal Party (14.5%), Save Romania Union (12%) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) which earned 6.6% of the vote. To govern, the PSD will likely need to renew its coalition with the PNL or form alliances with other smaller parties.
Although the traditional political establishment retained control of parliament the strength of the radical vote suggests that ultranationalist, pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu - who was formerly associated with the AUR - remains a strong contender for the upcoming second round of Presidential elections. Georgescu, an admirer of Vladimir Putin, caused political shockwaves with his first-round victory in the presidential election on 24 November, partly fuelled by a viral TikTok campaign. His success has raised alarm in Western capitals, given his rhetoric challenging NATO and his advocacy for Romanian nationalism.
Last week, the Constitutional Court ordered a recount of the 24 November first-round vote of the Presidential elections. Following an appeal by the Conservative Presidential candidate Cristian Terhes for the vote to be rerun, judges will decide today whether the results should be completely annulled due to alleged irregularities. If validated, Georgescu and Lasconi will proceed to the scheduled runoff on 8 December. However, if the first round is annulled a new vote could take place on 15 December with a subsequent runoff on 29 December. Both Georgescu and his opponent, liberal candidate Elena Lasconi, have criticised this possibility as undermining the democratic process. Such a decision could also fuel the far-right's claims that traditional ruling parties are attempting to manipulate the electoral process, potentially resulting in further gains for Georgescu.
W/C Monday, 2 December – New European Commission begins its mandate
This week, the new Commission college begins its 5-year mandate. On 27 November, von der Leyen’s entire new Commission was confirmed in the European Parliament’s plenary session in Strasbourg, as the product of political bargaining among different groups in a significantly reshuffled composition. 370 MEPs voted in favour, 282 against, while 36 abstained. The most powerful roles include the following executive vice Presidents:
· Estonia’s former Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who is taking over as the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, replacing Josep Borrell
· France’s Stephane Sejourne (Renew) for Industry and Competitiveness
· Spain’s Teresa Ribera (S&D) as Vice President for Climate Transition and Competition, tasked with handling a super portfolio encompassing both competition rules and green policies.
· Finland’s Henna Virkkunen (EPP) as Vice President for Tech Sovereignty, will oversee the enforcement of regulations like the AI Act, Digital Markets Act, and Digital Services Act, focusing heavily on US big tech firms.
Von der Leyen largely relied on the so-called ‘’centrist’’ pro-EU coalition in the European Parliament, comprised of EPP, S&D and Renew, to resolve a standoff over the final approval of the College last month. Nevertheless, this “coalition agreement” by S&D and Renew to secure centrist commitments from the EPP appears largely symbolic, offering no binding guarantees. This leaves the centre-right EPP free to align with groups both from its left (S&D, Renew, the Greens) and right wing (ECR, Patriots for Europe) to shape majorities on ad-hoc basis in the future.
W/C Monday, 2 December – European Commission likely to announce decision on Enstall’s acquisition of the German solar energy group
This week, the European Commission is likely to announce its decision on Dutch company Enstall’s acquisition of the German solar mounting systems provider Schletter Group. The deal, announced in August, is part of Enstall's strategy to expand its footprint in the solar energy sector, particularly in Germany and Central Europe. Enstall, a rooftop solar mounting solutions provider itself, positioning itself to serve a broader market through the geographic expansion of its presence.
Schletter Group, headquartered in Bavaria, is supplying systems with over 55 GW of peak capacity worldwide. Its product portfolio spans rooftops, façades, carports, and ground-mounted installations, supported by more than 105 global patents. The company, which restructured in 2018 under new ownership led by Avenue Capital Group, has since stabilised and is ready to scale its operations significantly. Schletter's current shareholders, Avenue Capital and Robus Capital, will retain minority stakes in Enstall under the new arrangement.
For Enstall, which was acquired by Blackstone and Rivean Capital in 2022, the Schletter deal aligns with its growth ambitions in Central and Eastern Europe and beyond. Per the announcement of the deal, the acquisition is expected to bolster the combined innovation capabilities of both companies, enabling them to offer a broader portfolio of products and digital solutions globally.
The transaction, notified to the European Commission on 8 November is expected to close in the second half of 2024, pending regulatory approval. Although the provisional decision deadline is 12 December, the Commission’s announcement could come as early as this week, determining the next steps in the integration of two of Europe’s leading companies in the photovoltaic sector.
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