Week Ahead (7 April)

Monday, 7 April – EU Trade Ministers to discuss retaliatory measures following Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” of 20% against the bloc 

EU Trade Ministers convene today to hold their first meeting since the US dramatically escalated its tariff regime against European goods on 2 April. The latest US measures, framed as “reciprocal tariffs” come on top of earlier duties of 25% on steel, aluminium, and automobiles, and were part of a broader wave of global reciprocal tariffs, dubbed by President Trump ‘’Liberation Day’’. 

According to DG Trade’s early impact assessment, dated on 3 April, the cumulative effect of the new tariffs is expected to affect up to €380 billion in EU exports to the US, roughly 70% of total EU exports to the country. The Commission estimates that this could result in approximately €80 billion in additional duties, broken down as follows: 

• €26 billion from steel and aluminium tariffs (25% since 12 March) 

• €66 billion from car tariffs (25% since 3 April) 

• €290 billion from broader reciprocal tariffs (20% since 9 April) 

While certain sectors have been excluded from the tariffs for now, including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, energy and critical raw materials, bullion (gold), and certain copper and wood products, which are still under review, Commission officials have noted that these exemptions remain under active consideration and could be revised. 

Even though the EU’s Trade Commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, confirmed last Thursday that the bloc would formally open talks with the US today, he also made clear that all options remain open if negotiations do not result in a balanced outcome.  

The EU’s initial countermeasures, focused on the March tariffs, are due to enter into force on 15 April and are expected to cover up to €26 billion in targeted goods. Broader countermeasures addressing the reciprocal tariffs and vehicle duties are being finalised and will follow later this month. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a temporary halt to new European investments in the US citing the “brutal and unfounded” nature of the tariffs. 

Beyond the already announced counter-tariffs on steel and aluminium, a range of strategic options is under consideration. 

 These include: 

• Targeted retaliation on iconic US goods (jeans, bourbon), following the model of the 2018 response. 

• Digital Services Taxes, an option championed by France but opposed by countries like Ireland due to potential tech sector disruption 

• Accelerated enforcement of EU tech regulation (e.g. DSA, DMA fines) 

• Deployment of the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which was adopted in 2023, to allow non-tariff retaliation, including against US services and investment, exploiting the EU’s large trade deficit with the US in the area of services. 

• Bringing to the table legislation on the ‘’Fair Share’’ under the upcoming Digital Networks Act, aimed at increasing infrastructure contributions from large US digital platforms to share the financial burden of digital infrastructure with the European telcos. 

• Supply chain sovereignty efforts, including tighter procurement guidelines and reduced reliance on US tech providers 

• Stepping up bilateral cooperation with other US-tariff-affected economies such as Mexico, Canada, the UK and India. 

• National support schemes to mitigate the effects of the tariffs, such as Spain’s €14 billion state aid package, announced just on Thursday. 

Today's discussions will likely centre around a staged response: a vote will follow on Wednesday agreeing to the next phase of the retaliatory measures, setting the ground for more comprehensive countermeasures to be considered later in April. 

W/C Monday, 7 April – European Commission to conclude its inaugural DMA probes; Apple and Meta likely to face modest fines 

Only a few days after the US imposition of a 20% ‘’reciprocal tariff’’ to EU goods, the European Commission will likely conclude the final rulings of its inaugural investigations into the US big tech firms Apple and Meta under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), following two weeks of delay. These inaugural cases, launched in March 2024, focus on whether the designated gatekeepers have violated key DMA obligations on data sharing, platform interoperability, and access to digital services for competitors, with a deadline of 12-months for conclusion. However, the original deadline of 24 March was considered a soft one. Instead, the Commission held a meeting of its Digital Advisory Committee on 28 March, a necessary procedural step in issuing a non-compliance decision.  

More specifically, Apple is being investigated for allegedly restricting interoperability within its App Store, while Meta faces scrutiny over its “pay or OK” consent model for targeted advertising. The final decisions are expected to include financial penalties, though reportedly at a modest level. According to a Reuters report last month, Apple and Meta are likely to face relatively limited fines for their suspected DMA violations, despite the law allowing sanctions of up to 10% of global annual turnover (and up to 20% for repeat infringements).  

An FT report last month cited EU sources suggested that the likely modest fines are likely driven by cautiousness to avoid escalating tensions with US President Trump. In February, President Donald Trump issued a memo threatening retaliatory tariffs on countries that “inhibit the growth” of US tech firms, calling EU regulations a form of “overseas extortion.” In an effort to de-escalate, EU Competition Commissioner Teresa Ribera and Tech Chief Henna Virkkunen wrote to US lawmakers in late March, specifically House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, reiterating that the DMA “does not target US companies.”   

Indeed, the upcoming rulings will be closely watched as a litmus test for how aggressively Brussels will enforce the DMA in practice. A softer approach may ease transatlantic frictions but risks weakening the law’s credibility. Conversely, robust penalties could reinforce the EU’s commitment to reining in Big Tech but may further escalate the ongoing trade disputes with Washington, as the response could be seen by the US administration as a form of retaliation to the reciprocal tariffs. 

Wednesday, 9 April – European finance ministers to hold informal meeting exploring new European Defence Mechanism and SAFE revisions 

On Wednesday, EU finance ministers will hold a meeting in Warsaw, joined by counterparts from the UK, Norway, and Switzerland to explore the creation of a new financing vehicle for joint defence procurement, provisionally named the European Defence Mechanism (EDM). The informal gathering, hosted under the Polish Council presidency, follows increasing political pressure to scale up Europe’s defence industrial capacity while circumventing national budgetary constraints.  The Polish government has commissioned Brussels-based think tank Bruegel to draw up a detailed blueprint for the initiative, which will be presented to ministers during the Warsaw meeting. The paper argues that the model could attract international investors, especially in the current climate of shifting capital flows away from US bonds, while addressing long-standing inefficiencies in EU defence procurement. 

The EDM would be open to non-EU participants, in line with a similar earlier proposal championed by the UK. Participating members would contribute based on their GDP and existing defence capabilities with the European Commission acting as a coordinating shareholder. Though some capitals, notably the UK, remain wary of Commission involvement, the model aims to standardise procurement and reduce duplication. The proposal’s appeal appears strongest among Northern and Eastern European member states, such as Sweden, Poland, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Finland, which have previously expressed support for more flexible procurement instruments with shared risk and lower upfront cost. 

In parallel, developments are expected this week on the Security Action For Europe (SAFE) defence loan programme, the €150 billion initiative launched by the European Commission to bolster EU-wide defence production, as part of its ReArm Europe plan. A revised draft regulation is anticipated, following feedback from EU ambassadors last week. During those discussions, the Commission defended its restrictive eligibility criteria, which currently exclude non-EU countries like the UK, Canada, and the US, citing the fact that SAFE is underpinned by the EU budget. However, there is growing momentum, led by Germany, the Netherlands, and the Nordics, to at least allow UK and Canadian participation. The Polish presidency has pledged to revise the text with simplified provisions and more flexible access, and the updated draft will likely be tabled ahead of  Wednesday’s ministerial meeting. 

Wednesday, 9 April – European Commission to unveil EU AI Continent Action Plan 

On Wednesday, the European Commission is expected to unveil its long-awaited AI Continent Action Plan, an initiative aimed at scaling up the development and deployment of artificial intelligence across the EU.  

It will come at a time of heightened global competition, with the US and UK also accelerating their AI investment and governance strategies. Moreover, the plan follows mounting concern over Europe’s lag in the global AI race. According to Mario Draghi’s September 2024 report on the future of the European industry, the EU faces a widening competitiveness gap in key advanced technologies, including AI, quantum computing, and semiconductors, when compared to the US and China. Since then, the emphasis has begun shifting from regulating new technologies, following the adoption of the AI Act, towards simplification and cutting red tape to boost these industries. Attending the FT Enabling Europe’s AI Ambitions conference in March, the Executive Vice President and Commissioner in charge of tech sovereignty, Henna Virkkunen, underlined the need to streamline the regulatory environment and improve uptake, echoing this ongoing shift. 

The plan, first flagged during the confirmation hearings of Virkkunen, is structured around five pillars: infrastructure, data access, cloud capacity, digital skills, and regulatory simplification. The plan will also serve as a launching pad for two additional strategies in Q3 2025: one on AI in science and another focused on sectoral adoption (“Apply AI”). This week, consultations on both of these strategies will kick off. 

A key financial component, the InvestAI initiative, was already announced in February, aiming to mobilise €200 billion in AI-related investment, including €20 billion for AI gigafactories to support the development of complex foundation models. 

Thursday, 10 April – Deadline for Commission to issue Statement of Objections on Liberty Media’s proposed acquisition of Dorna 

On Thursday, the European Commission has a de facto deadline to issue a Statement of Objections (SO) in its Phase 2 investigation over Liberty Media’s proposed €4.2 billion acquisition of MotoGP owner Dorna Sports. Even though the final decision deadline remains set for 1 July, the Commission typically needs to issue any objections well in advance to allow time for remedy discussions and procedural fairness. This means that this week would serve as a good indication of how the review will play out. If no SO is delivered by 10 April, the case will likely proceed toward final approval without remedies, in the absence of any unexpected developments. 

The in-depth investigation, formally launched in December 2024, focuses on whether Liberty Media’s control over both Formula 1 and MotoGP could distort competition in the sports broadcasting rights market, notably by giving the company excessive leverage in negotiations with national broadcasters and streamers. Another angle under scrutiny is the overlapping ownership structure of John Malone, who holds significant stakes in both Liberty Media and Liberty Global, raising concerns about possible favoritism toward Liberty Global-affiliated broadcasters. 

However, it appears increasingly likely that the Commission is not planning to issue formal objections, a move that would significantly boost the chances of unconditional clearance. Despite the aforementioned concerns, the Commission appears to have been persuaded by Liberty Media’s arguments that Formula 1 and MotoGP do not compete closely in terms of audience or broadcaster demand. The company maintains that rights are typically sold in larger multi-sport packages, and that substitution between the two is minimal, something that internal market testing appears to have confirmed. Crucially, no major complaints from broadcasters or competitors have emerged during the Commission’s probe. 

This stands in contrast to a similar deal blocked in 2006, when CVC Capital's attempt to consolidate ownership of both F1 and MotoGP was vetoed. However, the media landscape has shifted substantially since then, with the rise of digital platforms, diversified content portfolios, and increased global competition for sports rights, factors that have likely softened Brussels' stance.